NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95c0026e68b12c38f53dbdbc19c4be6af6f1e79098692ff1cc6d575b99293c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 72c | 2,388$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.7 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 66c | 1,794$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.02 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…4874backed Yes | 34c | 1,283$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 49c | 1,153$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.27 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…1ac3backed Yes | 28c | 948.21$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 58c | 637.78$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.21 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 61c | 612.24$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 71c | 550$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…e0cbbacked Yes | 36c | 515.77$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 42c | 404.11$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…5975backed Yes | 50c | 384.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…8f8cbacked Yes | 26c | 322.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…fc4cbacked Yes | 50c | 280.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…985ebacked Yes | 32c | 237.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…f305backed Yes | 47c | 217$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 52c | 207.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 32c | 206.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…26a7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Yes | 52c | 192.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 28c | 148.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 50c | 123.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Yes | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed Yes | 32c | 106.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 52c | 98.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 51c | 74.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Yes | 32c | 65.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 148 | 58.1%86 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…30d3backed Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 50c | 51.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…68dabacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 50c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kings vs. LakersLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-13.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.