NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaffa4d78c1be3a2d1a6832e9911d48adb6dd90507299bcfaaa5883dccfad0c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 54c | 1,434$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.7 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Yes | 45c | 1,200$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 63c | 819.66$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 55c | 454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 73c | 386$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.78 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Yes | 27c | 364.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 45c | 364.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 48c | 303.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…5b98backed Yes | 45c | 297.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 69c | 283.39$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.54 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 75c | 271.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…ce6cbacked Yes | 27c | 240$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 227.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 48c | 212.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…4874backed Yes | 30c | 207.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Yes | 30c | 200.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 31c | 179.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…fd45backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b68dbacked Yes | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 54c | 125.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…0512backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 56c | 90.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 46c | 84.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed Yes | 44c | 75.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 53.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…9b5fbacked Yes | 24c | 44.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Yes | 47c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…ff05backed Yes | 49c | 30.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…7df6backed Yes | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 52c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kings vs. LakersLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-13.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.