TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,973 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7879…3653backed Over57c1,500$855 inWon+$644.9815952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c1,361$569 inLost-$569.262,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over45c505$227 inWon+$277.752,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under55c405$223 inLost-$222.753,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e9…39b0backed Over28c323.39$91 inWon+$232.847152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under45c276.59$125 inLost-$125.232,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over53c193$102 inWon+$91.283,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under47c183$86 inLost-$86.011,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under46c158$72 inLost-$72.421,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over17c128$22 inWon+$106.2452230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x199f…7e77backed Over57c123.51$70 inWon+$53.516861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c7…4459backed Over56c107.14$60 inWon+$47.1411753.8%63 W · 54 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under71c99.66$70 inLost-$70.4787744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2e…3ef0backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost-$5026345.6%120 W · 143 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under72c55$40 inLost-$39.62,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Under43c33$14 inLost-$14.1922336.8%82 W · 141 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Under68c26.11$18 inLost-$17.822948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b62…1253backed Over54c20$11 inWon+$9.220756%116 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.