TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd69d…fe68backed Over0c6,281$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.787316.4%12 W · 61 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+1,317.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over13c1,237$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.292,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Under55c897.16$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.234855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21da…31ebbacked Under54c518.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.524269%29 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over46c518.52$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Over45c444.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9824151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over45c351.65$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.784,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5e…1a04backed Under57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.886162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Over43c347.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6447436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under56c344.74$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.684,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over43c283.03$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Under57c265.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1728554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under56c260$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.442348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over44c209.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.042,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5726048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under52c170$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.642853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.456547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Over18c141.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0314438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under75c132.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8140344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x647c…a772backed Over48c109.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over44c108.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over44c108$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5262347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4147…902abacked Under57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7217342.8%74 W · 99 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Over41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.822942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Over45c79.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6217643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef7…0e08backed Under76c78.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.822556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over44c76.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.063,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over43c70.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.631,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under57c65.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.371,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under52c65.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3223651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over25c53.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc861…f0fabacked Over22c50.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2665630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Over48c48.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0619348.2%93 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over48c47.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6355444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over45c42.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2278648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over48c42.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.324841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x729c…2b1ebacked Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3626354%142 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over43c35.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Over48c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3632752.9%173 W · 154 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under54c31.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6626638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over47c30.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1826450%132 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c5…787cbacked Over48c30.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f75…51acbacked Under55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…5453backed Under55c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under58c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.593,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e13…b909backed Under59c22.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.035048%24 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Under73c20.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5418757.2%107 W · 80 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.