TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,839 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked Over51c2,500$1,275 inWon+$1,224.995269.2%36 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under50c1,524$763 inLost-$763.011,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa97…b225backed Under49c1,500$735 inLost-$734.71060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under47c1,436$673 inLost-$672.631,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c642.68$321 inWon+$321.3484342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc94f…ce94backed Over53c543.45$288 inWon+$255.442568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under49c535.17$264 inLost-$264.433,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over47c500$235 inWon+$2652,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Under50c500$250 inLost-$25042845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under51c488.99$249 inLost-$249.3926638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over49c386.95$190 inWon+$1973,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over50c317.6$159 inWon+$158.81,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c303.77$153 inLost-$152.922,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Over53c230.53$122 inWon+$108.352050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cad…0758backed Over55c194.49$106 inWon+$88.433243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over53c190.46$100 inWon+$90.4617047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over51c169$87 inWon+$82.3124044.6%107 W · 133 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over53c153.4$81 inWon+$72.1259255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under49c102.04$50 inLost-$5045542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.0445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over50c101.9$51 inWon+$50.6536949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Over55c89$49 inWon+$39.6311058.2%64 W · 46 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…7367backed Over53c75.47$40 inWon+$35.474854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Under50c73.68$37 inLost-$36.848347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…60ccbacked Over52c49.88$26 inWon+$24.181258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Over50c45.5$23 inWon+$22.7520049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Under50c45$23 inLost-$22.516245.1%73 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Over53c37.72$20 inWon+$17.7311949.6%59 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under52c35.22$18 inLost-$18.272,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over50c27$14 inWon+$13.51,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8712…241fbacked Over53c23.04$12 inWon+$10.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a9…dbc4backed Over52c22.44$12 inWon+$10.6810444.2%46 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…746bbacked Over52c20.01$10 inWon+$9.62650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under53c20$11 inLost-$10.695452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.