Fifa International · resolved market
Harry Kane: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97e83fec8cba719a7166027789b399e8db161373c19b43b1372c57833be6d0d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4362…9e47backed Yes | 16c | 5,448$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,572.16 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Yes | 16c | 3,240$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.27 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 14c | 1,765$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.24 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 54c | 1,508$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.71 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0b9ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.33 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…9677backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…4a53backed Yes | 14c | 999.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.17 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…b308backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.67 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…c543backed Yes | 15c | 658.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.09 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…ab05backed Yes | 15c | 646.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.89 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…27b7backed Yes | 16c | 640.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.75 | 176 | 38.1%67 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…4c80backed Yes | 63c | 624.8$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | +20.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 79c | 615.72$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.01 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…5e20backed Yes | 43c | 588.37$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.37 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 16c | 563.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.75 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…593dbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…b4dabacked Yes | 16c | 520.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…4448backed Yes | 14c | 508.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.43 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 462.21$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.78 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…197abacked Yes | 15c | 448.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…3daebacked Yes | 16c | 406.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.25 | 190 | 31.6%60 W · 130 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…f661backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Yes | 40c | 366.12$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.67 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…3122backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 166 | 37.3%62 W · 104 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…be77backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 229 | 19.2%44 W · 185 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…eeb9backed Yes | 15c | 325$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…d10abacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…48abbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…2f40backed Yes | 48c | 275.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…56b8backed Yes | 15c | 248.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…80bfbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Yes | 15c | 209.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 152 | 25.7%39 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc220…5012backed Yes | 15c | 195.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 296 | 36.1%107 W · 189 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…63a2backed Yes | 65c | 175.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…49a7backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…289bbacked Yes | 52c | 147.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c5…3444backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…7635backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…ed8dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 129.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…a1b7backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…0f21backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 179 | 33.5%60 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 15c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed Yes | 47c | 104.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…cbe8backed Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5a…d5dabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef2…a060backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 105 | 68.6%72 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…80b2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…7ecebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95c…7dd1backed Yes | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…1fc7backed Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ee…4e60backed Yes | 17c | 85.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 49c | 83.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 79.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…946bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…0dd2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…bca6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…336fbacked Yes | 52c | 53.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 277 | 29.2%81 W · 196 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 49c | 44.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…0a6fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 32.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 177 | 60.5%107 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsthis page
- Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 3+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsYes won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ shotsNo won
- Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 3+ goalsNo won
- Elliot Anderson: 1+ assistsYes won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 5+ shotsYes won
- Igor Matanović: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 1+ assistsYes won
- Ivan Perišić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 1+ shotsNo won
- John Stones: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsYes won
- Luka Modrić: 1+ assistsNo won
- Luka Modrić: 2+ shotsNo won
- Marco Pašalić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ shotsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ shotsNo won
- Martin Baturina: 1+ goalsYes won
- Morgan Rogers: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shotsYes won
- Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 1+ shotsNo won
- Petar Musa: 1+ goalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.