Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98053275c42bed75c6fdbd94bb047c516b9017aebd0d70403b8058736f6ddf0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 1,830$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 814.47$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 689$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 71c | 576.91$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 462.48$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 460.11$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 50c | 446.59$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 75c | 435.22$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 49c | 419.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 38c | 405$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 401.58$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 400.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 394.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 392.56$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 380.41$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 372.37$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 53c | 355.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 332.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 276.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 269$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 253$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 232.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 64c | 226.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 216.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 208.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 197.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 78c | 184.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 174.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 173$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 59c | 162.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 60c | 162$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 50c | 158.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed Yes | 37c | 153$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 152.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 49c | 151.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 55c | 146.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 130.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 67c | 113$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 110.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 30c | 109.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 105.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 34c | 104.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 104.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 61c | 103.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 103.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 39c | 102.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 60c | 102.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 56c | 99.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 97.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 96.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 36c | 96.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 95.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 89.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 88.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked No | 80c | 87.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed No | 57c | 87.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 85.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 85.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 34c | 82.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 80.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 80.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 36c | 78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 77.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 71c | 77.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 37c | 72.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 65.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 62.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 62c | 62.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 72c | 62.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 60.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 60.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 46c | 58.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 74c | 58.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 76c | 56.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 64c | 56.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 56.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 58c | 55.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 54.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.