Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b58b9f1d6b66b2f1e310f9c6ded73ecff780aba020ede6808a46859ecc347df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,424$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 1,378$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 971.07$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 906.87$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 45c | 873.43$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.17 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 39c | 774.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 650.31$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 637.33$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 49c | 514.28$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 512.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 501.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 427.09$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 418.16$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 398.2$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 37c | 394.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 388.02$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 387.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 385.09$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 369.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 359.95$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 303.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 53c | 283$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 41c | 233.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 221$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 218.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 204.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 43c | 181.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 173$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 46c | 161.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 36c | 160.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 20c | 153.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 153.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 35c | 152.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 152$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 150.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 144.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 52c | 141.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 140.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 138.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 137.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 23c | 135.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 134.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 130.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 10c | 130.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 25c | 127.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 124.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 42c | 118.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 14c | 112.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 78c | 109.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 106.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 53c | 100.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 52c | 99.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 50c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 98.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 98.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 96.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 94.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 45c | 92.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 57c | 91.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 84.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 52c | 83.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 81.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 16c | 81.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 26c | 81.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed No | 54c | 79.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 76.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 50c | 74.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 70.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 25c | 70.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 54c | 68.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 66.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 61.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 59.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 58c | 58.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 57.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 57.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 56.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 56.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 54.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 48c | 51.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 49.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 49.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 31c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 29c | 48.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 48.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.