Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x981e0260ad7c413f8f849610276fe8ab1d99696f87fc3e5ad1262b108d809fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 1,427$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 1,383$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.14 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 48c | 959.28$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 909.99$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 12c | 887.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 41c | 863.29$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.31 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 745.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 32c | 633.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.03 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 610.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed No | 25c | 566.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 22c | 553.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 29c | 497.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.28 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 493.83$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 479.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 469.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 450.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 77c | 414.15$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 413.53$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 362.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 336.07$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 21c | 330.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 77c | 302.42$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 291.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 288.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 287.6$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 72c | 271.02$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 269.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 67c | 266.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 255$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 241.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed No | 25c | 230.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 34c | 220.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 210.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 197.81$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 197.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 67c | 195.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 33c | 179.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 34c | 167.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 167$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 166.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 159.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked No | 70c | 159.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 159.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 148.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 26c | 145.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 64c | 142.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 72c | 137.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 46c | 133.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 75c | 133.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 133.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 57c | 129.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 119.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 51c | 116.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 29c | 116.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 108.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 20c | 102.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 101.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 98.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…8d6ebacked No | 67c | 95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 31c | 90.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 90.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 89.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Yes | 29c | 86.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 32c | 85.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 33c | 85.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 48c | 84.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 83.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 19c | 81.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 61c | 74.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 34c | 70.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 74c | 69.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 41c | 68.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 67.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 64.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 63.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 61c | 62.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…b485backed Yes | 33c | 60.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 67c | 59.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 61c | 59.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 55.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 53.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 61c | 51.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.