TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof B8, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$797,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$875,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,942 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 708 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9c4…7433backed Team Nemesis41c61,269$25,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,897.4813244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Team Nemesis44c35,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,699.9975652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked B858c34,939$20,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,320.5614145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Team Nemesis41c21,000$8,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,389.9236152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked B857c20,617$11,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,689.878258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked B839c18,620$7,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,229.1940137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed B859c18,523$10,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,928.3520354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Nemesis39c17,971$6,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,020.8333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked B853c15,137$7,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,997.9836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Nemesis40c13,900$5,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,378.9776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked B839c13,071$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,148.0263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked B857c12,041$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,863.371,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Team Nemesis38c10,884$4,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.9414846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked B859c10,169$5,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,97525751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb19…5b35backed B858c9,760$5,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked B859c9,500$5,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.9364852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Team Nemesis43c9,320$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,312.47354.8%40 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked B860c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Team Nemesis42c8,300$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8144544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed B853c8,290$4,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,402.3333359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed B858c8,098$4,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,658.8636450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed B858c7,542$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed B855c7,500$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.233641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked B864c6,752$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,307.0423646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed B81c6,555$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5521949.8%109 W · 110 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis42c6,464$2,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.755,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Nemesis42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.9671645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Team Nemesis36c5,618$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.8617554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed B856c5,555$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.7867041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed B814c5,279$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.521,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed B835c5,167$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.924,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked B864c5,117$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,26046165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed B825c5,093$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.291,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked B836c5,087$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.723,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed B858c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked B860c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Team Nemesis45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9684958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Team Nemesis34c4,873$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.3912627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Nemesis42c4,588$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.3437646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Nemesis45c4,500$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.9466851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked B835c4,440$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.812,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed B859c4,283$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52712449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed B838c4,161$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.0525355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Team Nemesis41c4,000$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.9926952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed B857c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed B815c3,907$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.772,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Nemesis51c3,774$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.845646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Nemesis49c3,682$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.1114839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Team Nemesis60c3,671$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.512,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked B858c3,630$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.3838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9548…78d6backed Team Nemesis43c3,583$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.112040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Nemesis41c3,581$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.6632542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b38…1dccbacked Team Nemesis42c3,526$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+76.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked B856c3,188$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ff…64fbbacked B864c3,061$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.81850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Team Nemesis43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.994542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed B854c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Nemesis45c2,950$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.4923848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed B857c2,809$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.4520745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Nemesis45c2,568$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.862,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis69c2,519$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.895,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed B861c2,500$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked B859c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4758051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Team Nemesis46c2,484$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.366144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Team Nemesis39c2,457$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.456136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed B847c2,334$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0917439.2%29 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked B857c2,324$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3301,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Nemesis41c2,307$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.9638841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis49c2,266$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.141,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Nemesis38c2,258$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.8427753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Nemesis42c2,250$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30560248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked B855c2,151$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed B81c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked B844c2,000$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.12,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed B842c1,900$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.75,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked B859c1,893$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11719546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Nemesis39c1,798$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.814847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked B839c1,790$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.453,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed B858c1,784$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.6821953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14a…9917backed B862c1,717$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.94933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-42.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked B862c1,689$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Nemesis40c1,650$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.981,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Team Nemesis43c1,628$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.0155941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed B847c1,569$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.716,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e17…9d3cbacked B859c1,525$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006442.2%27 W · 37 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Nemesis51c1,504$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.711,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Nemesis42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8701,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked B839c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.998542.4%36 W · 49 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefcb…c215backed B848c1,496$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.151070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Team Nemesis36c1,489$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.0355039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed B845c1,411$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed B866c1,372$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90015259.9%91 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked B821c1,357$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.553,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3224…dc4dbacked Team Nemesis71c1,356$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.47666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2a…4fd0backed Team Nemesis43c1,347$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.795742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked B822c1,337$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.192611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-68.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed B865c1,337$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.959158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed B862c1,331$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82026360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Team Nemesis42c1,321$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.3161948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.