TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Spirit, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe74a…40eebacked Team Yandex26c57,948$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,147.891338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Spirit49c41,086$19,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,968.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Yandex51c32,097$16,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,650.68258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Spirit73c26,471$19,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,323.8812259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Team Yandex51c25,946$13,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,713.413650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex27c24,653$6,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,105.4913155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Team Spirit53c14,284$7,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,546.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Spirit74c13,761$10,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,182.9819943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Team Yandex26c10,052$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,438.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+155.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Yandex52c10,000$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.9855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Yandex27c10,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,339.9311839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed Team Spirit74c9,700$7,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,210.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Spirit75c8,814$6,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,607.7511557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Spirit74c8,426$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,23511547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex44c7,015$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,918.382,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Yandex51c6,488$3,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.2517444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Spirit78c5,853$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,546.628950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex44c5,567$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.571,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Spirit75c5,364$4,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,022.9513262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Spirit50c5,209$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.3910451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Spirit58c5,039$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.9318452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Spirit74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70027645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4577…092bbacked Team Spirit72c4,966$3,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,572.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Yandex45c4,874$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,670.2714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed Team Spirit55c4,532$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,494.595459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit62c4,500$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.9728159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex48c4,344$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.031,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Team Yandex24c4,292$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,261.8728341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit74c4,054$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Team Yandex22c4,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.976854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c05…578fbacked Team Spirit77c3,800$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,926728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick64cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Spirit74c3,773$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.5712351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Spirit72c3,693$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.514251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Yandex27c3,689$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex52c3,623$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.7385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Yandex24c3,600$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.9910048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Yandex54c3,231$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.7214840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf85…1681backed Team Spirit3c3,116$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Team Yandex27c3,096$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.198349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Team Yandex26c3,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.972867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Yandex23c3,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.9121847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Yandex25c2,896$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.1839936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Team Yandex52c2,843$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.553666.7%24 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Team Yandex52c2,700$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Spirit77c2,580$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.177357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Team Spirit77c2,400$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8486350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Team Spirit74c2,351$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7402142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Team Spirit73c2,223$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5165…252bbacked Team Spirit34c2,020$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6903240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Spirit74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48011253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…c99ebacked Team Spirit6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Spirit51c1,944$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.3415946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Yandex27c1,852$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.8514538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Spirit74c1,830$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3598557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit6c1,798$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Team Yandex22c1,737$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.3611855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5a…ca43backed Team Spirit49c1,682$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Team Spirit66c1,642$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.522740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit74c1,549$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.1653652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Spirit65c1,546$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Yandex22c1,519$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.018447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf858…37d0backed Team Spirit49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7351540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Team Yandex23c1,495$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.463748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex47c1,448$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.6234146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Spirit59c1,396$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82224045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit77c1,299$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Team Spirit77c1,285$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.432634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9801…1ab6backed Team Spirit74c1,265$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.224436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Team Spirit5c1,263$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.367630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Team Spirit75c1,220$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.775771.9%41 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Yandex22c1,202$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.9946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Team Yandex27c1,181$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.6310945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfce…b388backed Team Spirit74c1,175$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex27c1,105$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.7957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Team Yandex23c1,001$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.266240.3%25 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Spirit50c1,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50112868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed Team Spirit70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Team Spirit75c999.99$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.994540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa042…62bdbacked Team Spirit70c999.98$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.98742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca21…79ccbacked Team Spirit57c940.94$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.4680%0 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Team Spirit77c935.06$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7208543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Spirit44c899.99$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3996725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Team Yandex27c876.22$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Spirit59c851.02$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0930138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Team Yandex5c825.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.97714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a4…805abacked Team Spirit74c814$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Yandex66c801.29$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8479341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Yandex26c798$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.875044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team Yandex56c794.44$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3514537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Spirit54c761.66$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.862650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce11…4a49backed Team Spirit74c756.8$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.031450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3f…6102backed Team Yandex66c753.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Team Spirit69c726.94$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3311145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Team Spirit46c725.72$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.091457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Team Yandex26c674.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.492352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit44c672.22$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29819743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Team Yandex53c660.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.383354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefa…c212backed Team Spirit74c658.77$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Team Yandex23c648$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.966346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cdf…1d29backed Team Yandex26c624.81$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.361631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.