Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8196ef9f60540f1fc2694909178f015eda2d869d66600f4bf3efe4b8e54650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 28c | 782.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 378$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 295$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 25c | 271.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 202.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…e036backed No | 61c | 162.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 160.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 45c | 143.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 120.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 44c | 107.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 53c | 45.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…3afabacked Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…ef3dbacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 30.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378f…a862backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 329 | 43.8%144 W · 185 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…cf1bbacked Yes | 47c | 28.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5f…2e6abacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…b383backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…69a2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Germany finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.