Movies · resolved market
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e81f2ddee27a3777714ae134abbf0722319ba51a3a875e9ee9a274bd230ab8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,533$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.57 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,984$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked No | 80c | 1,949$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.66 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed No | 35c | 1,088$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.65 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 46c | 547.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.55 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 33c | 453.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.03 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 442.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 52c | 375.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 351.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 60c | 349.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 41c | 343.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 30c | 332.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…fce4backed Yes | 9c | 314.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 9c | 297.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 283.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 27c | 251.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 26c | 225.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 13c | 209.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 24c | 188$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 16c | 168.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 41c | 156$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 54c | 124$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 34c | 106.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…3fb6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 36c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…82d7backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…19a4backed Yes | 41c | 49.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 56c | 43.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 34c | 40.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 43c | 37.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 29.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…5c67backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 58c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Little Brother" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.