WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ead85d97088e0b928304f14a53f7e24b919b2f23a49744b27d5c5f6fa203dbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Indiana Fever, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 8,041$4,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,809.47 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 7,785$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.48 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 6,035$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.94 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 5,419$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.76 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 3,690$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.5 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 3,671$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.26 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 3,016$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.06 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 2,928$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 2,142$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.2 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 2,073$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.18 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 1,739$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.89 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 68c | 1,377$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 1,319$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.62 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,200$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.5 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Indiana Fever | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.29per pick | 36cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 45c | 964.01$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.39 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 671.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 627.35$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 78c | 561.32$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 501.35$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.65 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 428.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Indiana Fever | 32c | 286$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 283.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 267.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…971cbacked Indiana Fever | 35c | 257.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 229.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Indiana Fever | 35c | 218.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Indiana Fever | 35c | 198.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 184.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 182.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Indiana Fever | 24c | 158.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 143.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Golden State Valkyries | 76c | 141.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd03…60fbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 93.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 92.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 82.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 65.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 61.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 57.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e79…1763backed Golden State Valkyries | 73c | 54.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 48.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 44.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 44.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Indiana Fever | 33c | 39.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 32.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…3a29backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 32.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Indiana Fever | 37c | 31.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 29.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Golden State Valkyries | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)this page
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana FeverGolden State Valkyries won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 165.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 166.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 167.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 168.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.