TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, TYLOO
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$570,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$625,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $570,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 570 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e3…1be9backed TYLOO28c44,752$12,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,530.4220354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports72c30,000$21,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,450.2250054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked TYLOO31c30,000$9,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,149.8975652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked TYLOO33c27,683$9,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,238.341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed TYLOO32c27,061$8,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,557.1623839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e23…e933backed FUT Esports80c22,300$17,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,490.9912660.3%76 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed FUT Esports70c15,145$10,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.910361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TYLOO18c11,505$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.351,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed FUT Esports79c11,441$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.4833359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed FUT Esports70c11,110$7,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.4415052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FUT Esports67c8,727$5,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.5222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FUT Esports72c8,293$5,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.1725261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TYLOO19c7,466$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.581,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FUT Esports71c7,050$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.519455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked TYLOO29c6,619$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.4322449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FUT Esports70c6,164$4,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.1138358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed TYLOO29c6,100$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.9723848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked FUT Esports72c6,000$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.7427658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb78b…2bb3backed FUT Esports68c5,856$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.482564%16 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TYLOO19c5,785$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6688746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed FUT Esports71c5,674$4,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.4610359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed TYLOO29c5,555$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.9411434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed TYLOO11c5,467$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.34526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked FUT Esports69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.993262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.9975450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked TYLOO29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9812956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed TYLOO30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9835153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked TYLOO30c4,720$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.7117849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TYLOO27c4,500$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.9866851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed TYLOO11c3,697$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.39826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed TYLOO29c3,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9260248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdae…39ebbacked TYLOO31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports77c3,219$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.346,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed TYLOO33c3,133$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.2250051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FUT Esports70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked TYLOO16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4806266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked TYLOO32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9817540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports71c2,952$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.251,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked FUT Esports70c2,870$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8619454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked TYLOO10c2,835$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2967941.8%33 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed TYLOO23c2,648$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.6455941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked TYLOO20c2,562$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.0817148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed FUT Esports71c2,538$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.115155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bef…5e49backed FUT Esports69c2,500$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7758256.1%46 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TYLOO27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.991,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a9a…af08backed TYLOO19c2,410$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa0…253cbacked FUT Esports71c2,239$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.1811656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked FUT Esports73c2,219$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.375971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked TYLOO29c2,100$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60910136.6%37 W · 64 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed TYLOO30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed TYLOO30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60026054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TYLOO29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed FUT Esports70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.993863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TYLOO28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed FUT Esports73c1,860$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.1527657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed FUT Esports71c1,802$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.4842651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked FUT Esports70c1,759$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.597250%36 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5240…f84ebacked TYLOO30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e6…ef53backed TYLOO16c1,665$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.984226.2%11 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed TYLOO32c1,650$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.0910333%34 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports71c1,609$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.7196545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed TYLOO26c1,600$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41632732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked FUT Esports70c1,596$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.9432548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FUT Esports69c1,587$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.1441069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed TYLOO30c1,518$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.361957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed FUT Esports66c1,508$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.8411843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f3…bc1abacked FUT Esports77c1,503$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.691145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed FUT Esports71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43520958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TYLOO4c1,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5569624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed FUT Esports69c1,445$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.8611253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TYLOO25c1,424$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.291,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed FUT Esports71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4536450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked FUT Esports71c1,341$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.919553.7%51 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed FUT Esports79c1,328$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.55464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed TYLOO29c1,250$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.559755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed TYLOO12c1,250$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14911061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed TYLOO12c1,210$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.451,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f035backed FUT Esports71c1,200$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3486943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa75b…ea01backed TYLOO4c1,177$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed FUT Esports73c1,165$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3223354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FUT Esports72c1,119$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3623646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TYLOO29c1,100$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.995,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked TYLOO3c1,050$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked TYLOO2c1,045$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked FUT Esports76c1,020$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0946165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed FUT Esports69c1,014$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4911551.3%59 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed FUT Esports71c1,009$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.5422358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed FUT Esports73c1,008$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.25752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed FUT Esports71c1,007$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.0416749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed TYLOO29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked FUT Esports69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31018860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dd…e4a3backed FUT Esports70c999.98$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.991520%3 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick37cpaid+56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TYLOO19c979.28$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.064,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed TYLOO25c952.86$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.099256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef00…de7fbacked TYLOO15c916.45$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.797737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed FUT Esports70c906.15$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8413550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed FUT Esports69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27976546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed FUT Esports79c889.28$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9226368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FUT Esports70c887.99$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.41,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…cbbebacked TYLOO30c885.96$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.891346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.