TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes6c7,788$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.399815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes12c6,435$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.462015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c4,799$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.99964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes22c3,244$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes3c3,168$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.668037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes15c3,103$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.352759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes6c2,936$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.116726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566d…d47dbacked Yes7c2,858$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed No79c2,226$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes5c2,173$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.23329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2855…afffbacked Yes10c2,070$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.591225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…5333backed Yes12c2,043$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6482…5fedbacked Yes21c1,971$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes12c1,831$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed Yes9c1,800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.98120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes10c1,700$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c1,563$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.1251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1173…f95fbacked Yes13c1,466$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes11c1,390$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes8c1,305$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes14c1,298$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17840433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes9c1,282$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.571428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa756…cb2dbacked Yes8c1,100$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes12c1,026$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.846137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed Yes12c1,002$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+92.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ee…181dbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes5c966.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.653633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd511…033ebacked Yes8c912.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked Yes4c841.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.771216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…11e4backed Yes6c841.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…2da7backed Yes8c812.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf3…76eabacked Yes8c787.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147d…e43abacked Yes6c783.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253f…edf9backed No74c753.79$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.11752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes11c730$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d2…4951backed Yes9c700$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes6c683.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b1…ec47backed Yes20c619.47$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes15c613.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes14c575.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes2c573.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.693116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes24c499.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes9c488.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424045%18 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes11c453.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x670b…e4afbacked Yes9c450.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No75c420$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.22454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x541c…02ebbacked Yes11c403.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31d…36d5backed Yes25c400.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007855.1%43 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b1…004bbacked Yes8c389.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca9d…07f7backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8a…7a17backed Yes16c364$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes17c351.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes11c331.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.952825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d01…dfb9backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb7…f16dbacked No74c299.09$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.761968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+59.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc876…cedfbacked Yes10c287.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes5c275.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7567…6c48backed No75c267.09$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.591973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.75743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d9e…2557backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No75c225$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.253923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0496…d6d7backed Yes26c203.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.02130%0 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3634…310dbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes23c188.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.855836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe12b…c896backed Yes13c180$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1179…b4a0backed Yes14c179.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes6c175.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.657728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes9c169.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.263243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No74c155$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1461…9c22backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.148834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No75c133$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab2…b47bbacked Yes19c127.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05fe…764fbacked No75c112.43$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfafc…31d9backed Yes10c104.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+51.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x070f…e749backed Yes25c77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3178…277dbacked Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f2…2c41backed No75c64.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a8…c77bbacked No76c51.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x676e…8aa7backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x124a…1332backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed No75c46.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d96…147fbacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+177.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No70c20.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.013644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2f…4b5fbacked No75c16.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.