La Liga · resolved market

Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08b6dc8daa828c0b86c20209e70cbf9fe590124b2a4569fcd8c3374bb839990

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under	53c	47,135$25,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,984.97	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	45c	23,379$10,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,619.73	4,740	47%2,230 W · 2,510 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	38c	16,275$6,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,126.03	908	43.6%396 W · 512 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	46c	9,000$4,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,140	241	45.2%109 W · 132 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Under	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,350	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	53c	3,000$1,590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,410	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	2,000$955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.99	234	52.6%123 W · 111 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Under	54c	1,854$1,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-59%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	1,660$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.37	240	47.9%115 W · 125 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	47c	1,548$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.83	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over	47c	1,500$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705	387	29.5%114 W · 273 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under	78c	1,373$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.08	27	63%17 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	71cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	46c	1,217$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.82	68	60.3%41 W · 27 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Under	54c	859.8$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.02	223	66.8%149 W · 74 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Over	48c	833.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Under	49c	816.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.33	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Over	46c	816.01$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.36	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d4d…dd19backed Under	51c	770.29$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	754.61$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.16	1,018	53.1%541 W · 477 L	-24.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over	42c	600.23$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.25	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	2c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under	51c	570$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.3	61	41%25 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	37c	540$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.8	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Over	39c	500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c8…6c62backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	640	46.9%300 W · 340 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Under	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	110	49.1%54 W · 56 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	47c	381.32$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.22	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under	51c	358.82$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.82	25	44%11 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	44c	340.91$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+14.2wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+24%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Under	60c	250$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…202dbacked Under	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	73cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Over	48c	199.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	72	36.1%26 W · 46 L	-6.0wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fe…c658backed Under	53c	179.43$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.33	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	48c	166.67$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	225	53.8%121 W · 104 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa458…7141backed Under	72c	166.67$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.67	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	51c	136.88$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.07	240	52.9%127 W · 113 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	49c	135.88$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.18	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Under	72c	124$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf0a…70a0backed Under	68c	117.58$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.58	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	75	73.3%55 W · 20 L	+20.9wins	+0.28per pick	45cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Over	53c	94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca9…2a50backed Over	49c	88.96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over	47c	81.79$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	52c	80$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Over	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Under	66c	75.76$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	27	74.1%20 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	60cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over	49c	72.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked Under	48c	69.23$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc368…0b4ebacked Under	52c	57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.36	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over	52c	55.77$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	30c	54.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	572	52.1%298 W · 274 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd927…ea7cbacked Under	70c	53.56$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.07	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	77c	53.22$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	3,449	43%1,484 W · 1,965 L	+32.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1170…8398backed Over	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	49c	52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	226	38.5%87 W · 139 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	46c	44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	489	34.4%168 W · 321 L	+26.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Over	51c	41.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked Over	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…4523backed Over	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	45.3%120 W · 145 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb063…c9d1backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x78c5…c3f3backed Under	78c	32.05$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Over	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7dc…af80backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under	51c	29.4$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	71	54.9%39 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62f0…afe6backed Over	48c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa03…eea2backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.65	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d5…9422backed Under	54c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc9…801ebacked Over	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c94…1f7dbacked Under	50c	20.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+16%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168c…7edebacked Under	51c	19.83$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5this page
Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Sevilla FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event