NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa260587e3d023a47f26f9f554f00f36538c9d37a1f0386465dcb21b66d03be71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Trail Blazers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 6,780$3,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,528.6 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,613$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Mavericks | 48c | 4,120$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.4 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,838$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 2,000$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.9 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 48c | 1,163$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.77 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,029$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.66 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks | 65c | 765.24$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.57 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 47c | 550.46$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.98 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Mavericks | 47c | 403.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.1 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 390$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Trail Blazers | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Trail Blazers | 34c | 289.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 283.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 47c | 265.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 212.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Trail Blazers | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 387 | 40.3%156 W · 231 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Trail Blazers | 5c | 189.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Mavericks | 64c | 156.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Mavericks | 47c | 154.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 151.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…9798backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 134.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Mavericks | 48c | 132.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Mavericks | 46c | 102.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Mavericks | 49c | 98.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Mavericks | 46c | 94.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Mavericks | 48c | 86.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Mavericks | 45c | 79.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Trail Blazers | 30c | 78.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Mavericks | 45c | 67.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Mavericks | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdade…8e37backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 61.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Mavericks | 47c | 60.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Trail Blazers | 34c | 59.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 46c | 56.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 54.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 54.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…bb8cbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 49.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…b3dbbacked Mavericks | 48c | 46.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 34.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Trail Blazers | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Mavericks | 47c | 29.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Mavericks | 48c | 27.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…eae2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Mavericks | 52c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Mavericks | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Mavericks | 66c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. Trail BlazersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5Under won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Robert Williams III: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.