TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Secret Whalesof Team Secret Whales, MVK Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed MVK Esports3c20,896$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.892,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked MVK Esports2c5,182$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2719835.4%70 W · 128 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed MVK Esports23c3,757$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.5930843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MVK Esports18c3,493$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.921,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team Secret Whales78c3,216$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.2217348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a15cbacked MVK Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30853.5%3 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-87.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed MVK Esports36c3,000$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.7717347.4%82 W · 91 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked MVK Esports1c2,574$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3538931.9%124 W · 265 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Team Secret Whales77c2,259$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.5734255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked MVK Esports23c1,950$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.59040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed MVK Esports22c1,838$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40511428.9%33 W · 81 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Secret Whales75c1,834$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.481,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MVK Esports22c1,741$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38490537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed MVK Esports21c1,577$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0735442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Team Secret Whales76c1,510$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.451,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed MVK Esports19c1,408$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.61,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed MVK Esports22c1,360$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.4740726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Secret Whales77c1,255$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.581,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Secret Whales79c1,202$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.181,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Secret Whales79c1,132$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.151,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Team Secret Whales76c1,000$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24589050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MVK Esports25c967$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.982,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MVK Esports2c949.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed Team Secret Whales76c814.73$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5348763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Secret Whales56c764$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.322,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked MVK Esports22c734.6$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6124535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Secret Whales77c655.5$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5522455.4%124 W · 100 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MVK Esports25c599.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked MVK Esports23c593.57$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.11,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed MVK Esports19c587$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3516646.4%77 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked MVK Esports24c520.76$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.425822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MVK Esports22c495.05$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.382,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Secret Whales78c440$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.866845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Secret Whales68c439.27$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.91,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked MVK Esports10c416.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.634151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed MVK Esports22c395.91$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.116933.1%56 W · 113 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Team Secret Whales76c370.1$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8223946%110 W · 129 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked MVK Esports24c358$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9210855.6%60 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed MVK Esports20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7096054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Team Secret Whales76c326.79$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.434875%36 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…0e9cbacked MVK Esports24c320.83$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Secret Whales72c310$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.935642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Secret Whales73c298.96$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.261,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Team Secret Whales80c276$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.242851.2%219 W · 209 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Team Secret Whales72c256$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8427745.1%125 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Team Secret Whales78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5536643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41cd…d80dbacked Team Secret Whales75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MVK Esports22c237.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.342,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked MVK Esports23c223$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2922142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MVK Esports18c217.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c4…caaebacked MVK Esports24c211.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019644.9%88 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed MVK Esports20c209$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.858850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed MVK Esports24c200.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.152231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Secret Whales79c166.54$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.171,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked MVK Esports23c165.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.311,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa45a…02e5backed MVK Esports18c151.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2835647.5%169 W · 187 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Team Secret Whales75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.525851.9%134 W · 124 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Team Secret Whales77c143.71$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4916654.2%90 W · 76 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7843…7f7dbacked MVK Esports21c143$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2915240.1%61 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Team Secret Whales77c128.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4435058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Team Secret Whales45c124.52$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4920336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Secret Whales78c120$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e6…bb76backed MVK Esports25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Secret Whales79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Secret Whales78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7994444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x054e…9b8fbacked MVK Esports24c99.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Secret Whales79c86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Secret Whales54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a3…37d6backed Team Secret Whales77c74.03$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.034663%29 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Team Secret Whales77c73.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked Team Secret Whales80c66.96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3950550.7%256 W · 249 L+34.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9454…9abcbacked Team Secret Whales75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6721166.4%140 W · 71 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e8…ef2bbacked Team Secret Whales76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7964556.6%365 W · 280 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked MVK Esports22c64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0854934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f83…7d93backed MVK Esports18c62.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+79%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Secret Whales80c62.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51,27057%724 W · 546 L+45.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4041…60f0backed Team Secret Whales49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2216543%71 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team Secret Whales75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1549847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Team Secret Whales72c55.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3738945.2%176 W · 213 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed MVK Esports28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516444.5%73 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Team Secret Whales78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2242055%231 W · 189 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Secret Whales79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.585849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Team Secret Whales77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.515660.9%95 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57e6…9622backed Team Secret Whales77c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.122642.3%11 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-34.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed MVK Esports24c43.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked MVK Esports28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111735%41 W · 76 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Team Secret Whales71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.623849.2%117 W · 121 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked MVK Esports25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045444.3%201 W · 253 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed Team Secret Whales78c37.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.275366%35 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a29…8cc4backed Team Secret Whales80c36.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3241151.1%210 W · 201 L+19.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Team Secret Whales62c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8113639.7%54 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed Team Secret Whales53c33.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6316242%68 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Secret Whales73c31.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Team Secret Whales75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Team Secret Whales76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.239555.2%218 W · 177 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Team Secret Whales79c29.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1928350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Team Secret Whales76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3234357.1%196 W · 147 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Team Secret Whales71c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5432253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b17…fdbfbacked Team Secret Whales80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518159.7%108 W · 73 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ae…6584backed Team Secret Whales80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526561.1%162 W · 103 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.