NBA · resolved market
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa635fc6c6890f79c64f24d6309f1a04cbbb808e4e9b5937fd7576b242c5a2ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 51c | 249.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 50c | 38.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…4257backed Yes | 51c | 31.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…8f62backed Yes | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- 76ers vs. Celtics76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 211.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)76ers won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.