NBA · resolved market
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb7ad80c8caabc773a5a80647b98f69b86841e28180d05035c7a41fbe3e9ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 50c | 528.01$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 49c | 299.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 51c | 157.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 46c | 101.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…08d3backed No | 46c | 98.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 49c | 70.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 49c | 66.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…d1cbbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 46c | 29.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0918…b2d5backed Yes | 51c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 52c | 22.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…2fa4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- 76ers vs. Celtics76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 211.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)76ers won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.