TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,055 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6157…9fb4backed Over50c3,966$2,000 inLost-$2,0007963.3%50 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c1,998$884 inWon+$1,114.442,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under39c1,385$535 inWon+$849.363,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under50c711.06$353 inWon+$357.9369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under33c500$165 inWon+$3352,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under34c197$67 inWon+$130.022,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa8…8dd9backed Over68c147.06$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa467…587dbacked Over50c136$68 inLost-$681040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under51c120$62 inWon+$58.457550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over50c98$49 inLost-$491,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Under46c62.36$29 inWon+$33.435036%18 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Over49c60$29 inLost-$29.414237.3%53 W · 89 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$2031748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over47c32.58$15 inLost-$15.3184342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under41c32$13 inWon+$18.8889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983c…dd56backed Over56c22.46$13 inLost-$12.5811551.3%59 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under53c20.75$11 inWon+$9.755637.5%21 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfa…c499backed Over65c20$13 inLost-$131764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+63.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.