Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b26523f61e9c323ed86e2a66a3b3517b76319f39161b7a8e77708c1011028e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 704.38$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.32 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 546.19$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 518.48$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 516.44$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 349.35$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked Yes | 46c | 348.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 36c | 344.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 326.21$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 274.01$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 272.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 46c | 254.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 241.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 57c | 237.61$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 226.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 43c | 223.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 200.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 38c | 183.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 179.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 170.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 162.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 40c | 158.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 139.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 52c | 123.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 52c | 119.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 115.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 103.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 102.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 95.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 92.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 89.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 86.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 37c | 85.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 85.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 84.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 82.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 79.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 72.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 70.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 61.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 55.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 37c | 52.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 72c | 52.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 61c | 51.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 49.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 44.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 44.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 41c | 44.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 42.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 38c | 40.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 53c | 38.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 38.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 52c | 37.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 36.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…05cdbacked Yes | 42c | 36.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 44c | 35.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 31c | 35.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…c848backed Yes | 34c | 31.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 30.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 49c | 20.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 63c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.