TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes37c704.38$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c546.19$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No54c518.48$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.331,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c516.44$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c349.35$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.425,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b52…589abacked Yes46c348.06$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.56128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-88.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes36c344.35$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes41c326.21$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c274.01$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c272.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes46c254.89$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.27832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c241.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No57c237.61$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3314236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c226.12$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes43c223.52$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.94247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c200.47$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.214,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes38c183.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.752825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes33c179.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No69c170.64$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c162.1$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes40c158.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.181,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked No61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c139.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c124$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.369,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes52c123.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7616134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes52c119.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6284930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c115.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes39c103.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c102.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.561,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No54c95.26$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1488628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c92.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes27c89.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.794,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes41c86.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.742,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No56c86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.821,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes37c85.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c85.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c84.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.455,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes28c82.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No63c79.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.091,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes27c72.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No60c70.82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.155,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked Yes46c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.54955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes44c64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c61.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.665,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No72c55.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2333351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5130…818bbacked Yes37c52.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.473318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-52%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes37c52.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No72c52.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5810081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed No61c51.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1124434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.751,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c49.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No65c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f5…923abacked Yes35c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No47c44.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.884546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes34c44.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed Yes41c44.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.485932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes34c44.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1222932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes30c42.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.745236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes38c40.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3514954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.223241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes53c38.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.064060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c38.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes52c37.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3815152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No58c36.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad71…05cdbacked Yes42c36.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes44c35.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.871,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa46e…fec5backed Yes31c35.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed No61c32.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9210536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…c848backed Yes34c31.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.742,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No74c30.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8839968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126830.9%21 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No52c29.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.252,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No71c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No58c25.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6544465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No70c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5779255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No50c24.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c24.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.745,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0626861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No68c21.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.872,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No72c20.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No49c20.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5617553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No68c20.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27060%42 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.47467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4d…2725backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.47138%27 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No63c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.