TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,873 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes78c1,918$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.1589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes51c932.29$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.5731043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No14c503.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.361,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c400.93$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No56c399.93$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.811,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c358.33$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No17c338.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No45c315.36$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6784930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c287.76$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.976,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes52c260.91$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9131943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes35c259.69$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.961,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes36c255.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.147832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b52…589abacked No47c231.58$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-88.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2d54…2bc7backed Yes44c224.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes54c221.82$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes68c214.7$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.77949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No25c212.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.041,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c204.59$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.811,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes50c190$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No58c187.39$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.132,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No18c185.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c180.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.014,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c173$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.515,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c146.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.252,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c138.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.553,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No73c137.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c123.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes77c122.21$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.625,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No58c117.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No26c112.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes76c105.08$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6724046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes44c102.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2729835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes46c101.65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes46c100.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.825519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes70c95.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6630144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes65c90.24$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4728649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c88.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes36c88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.149,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.64942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6823241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No64c79.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.81,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes41c71.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9918337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes55c69.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3624732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No73c68.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.732,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No54c62.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.641,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes42c59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1314043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes40c57.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2740741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes66c57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No45c55.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes42c54.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes43c50.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.817356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.164738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3214134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4805…d00bbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236830.9%21 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.721,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No59c49.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No47c48.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.114751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb887…649dbacked Yes41c48.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.581442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes53c46.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.84060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes45c46.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3115558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c45.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes54c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes48c41.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.66448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No68c39.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed No50c39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.395932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes43c38.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No61c38.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c37.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No48c36.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6813051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c35.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.942,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No55c32.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.852,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked Yes38c31.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7624951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No47c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.574546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No68c30.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.767251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes50c30.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2317553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c28.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5846240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes36c28.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2252446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes36c28.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0240461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No53c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57ab…a228backed No65c27.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185267.3%35 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.