Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e2decd6eca8d12114c1b6c87821c7208da266fa25c190506ee024a6f6ca62e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 78c | 1,918$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.15 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 51c | 932.29$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.57 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 14c | 503.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 400.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 399.93$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 358.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 338.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 45c | 315.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 287.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 52c | 260.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 259.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 36c | 255.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked No | 47c | 231.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…2bc7backed Yes | 44c | 224.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 54c | 221.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 68c | 214.7$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 212.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 204.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…e4dabacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 190$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 187.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 185.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 180.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 173$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 146.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 138.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 137.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 123.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 122.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 58c | 117.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 112.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 76c | 105.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 101.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 46c | 100.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 70c | 95.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 65c | 90.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 88.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 79.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 41c | 71.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 55c | 69.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 68.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 62.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 40c | 57.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 54.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 43c | 50.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…d00bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 49.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 47c | 48.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 53c | 46.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 45c | 46.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 45.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 39.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 50c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 43c | 38.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 38.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 37.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 48c | 36.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 35.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 31.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 68c | 30.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 50c | 30.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 28.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 65c | 27.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.