Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f2fade9167d9c7c3c6053b4453aab919858e4400148f96453568a563ebb1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paris Saint-Germain FCof Arsenal FC, Paris Saint-Germain FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Arsenal FC | 4c | 15,199$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.98 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Arsenal FC | 4c | 2,117$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…0306backed Arsenal FC | 7c | 1,413$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Arsenal FC | 4c | 1,311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…5237backed Arsenal FC | 3c | 1,020$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c9…9e8abacked Arsenal FC | 4c | 1,012$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…f545backed Arsenal FC | 10c | 1,002$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Arsenal FC | 4c | 757.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arsenal FC | 3c | 721.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…f331backed Arsenal FC | 9c | 516$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Arsenal FC | 6c | 499.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…100fbacked Arsenal FC | 5c | 411.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Arsenal FC | 5c | 343.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Arsenal FC | 6c | 339.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arsenal FC | 8c | 321.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Arsenal FC | 4c | 276$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arsenal FC | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.