Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc677877beebf6e85837fe87efc2400175fe149a5cf47625ebb6727ce263943c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 12c | 13,183$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.27 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Over | 3c | 6,879$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 11c | 4,549$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.33 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 12c | 3,862$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 11c | 3,600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -9.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…735fbacked Over | 12c | 3,125$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 11c | 2,300$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…fca9backed Over | 1c | 1,333$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…62f3backed Over | 11c | 1,317$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 11c | 1,100$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 14c | 1,039$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…6e71backed Over | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…a734backed Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 10c | 852$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Over | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 12c | 825.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 10c | 803.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…7eafbacked Over | 20c | 660.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +2,882.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 11c | 535.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…f360backed Over | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 3c | 438.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…c1a7backed Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Over | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…de52backed Over | 5c | 386.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…10b4backed Over | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed Over | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Over | 12c | 309.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 11c | 251.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…6e66backed Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…953dbacked Over | 11c | 210.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 8c | 202.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Over | 13c | 189.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Over | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…9863backed Over | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…9bbebacked Over | 19c | 180.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f517backed Over | 11c | 170.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 79c | 167.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…96edbacked Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…eea7backed Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…6358backed Over | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…5c8ebacked Over | 13c | 153.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc80…cebabacked Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 12c | 149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…dde1backed Over | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 11c | 119.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 9c | 116.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 17c | 113.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…7875backed Over | 12c | 105.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Over | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Over | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.