Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20405ca8ce7d82790f0557bd5b3fc2bdec2137937d91f53caef5cb86878b18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 9c | 65,182$5,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,648.45 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 8c | 21,950$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 9c | 15,010$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.96 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 7c | 13,379$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 11,479$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.34 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 10c | 10,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…af24backed Under | 10c | 2,668$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 9c | 2,349$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 294 | 45.9%135 W · 159 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 8c | 2,131$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Under | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Under | 9c | 2,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 10c | 1,030$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 154 | 38.3%59 W · 95 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 10c | 1,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…9dadbacked Under | 11c | 902.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 10c | 769.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 9c | 763.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked Under | 10c | 719.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Under | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 9c | 340.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 9c | 334.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 9c | 307.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 9c | 234.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 9c | 226.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…1a9ebacked Under | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 10c | 206.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…ad3cbacked Under | 10c | 203.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 10c | 201.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Under | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Under | 11c | 185.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f517backed Under | 8c | 180.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Under | 9c | 154$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 8c | 149.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…cc1cbacked Under | 8c | 137.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Under | 10c | 116.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 9c | 115.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 9c | 113.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.