Champions League · resolved market
Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-07-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71c08b2cd9789b290b48612af77e632948fc03974493cbaf2d57a05eccd1bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 31c | 3,522$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.55 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 68c | 2,312$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.87 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1582…e47ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,903$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4582backed Yes | 33c | 1,687$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.8 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 1,620$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.6 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 1,512$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.47 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed No | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 1,107$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.79 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…dc17backed Yes | 12c | 1,036$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 941.94$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Yes | 24c | 884.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Yes | 7c | 862.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 67c | 777.72$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.05 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed Yes | 8c | 767$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 32c | 671.92$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 69c | 511.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…ff0fbacked No | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 68c | 342.42$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 32c | 342.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 317.91$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 33c | 310.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 69c | 255$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 254.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 70c | 231.16$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 223$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 67c | 222.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…2fd7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 35c | 187.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 31c | 162$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 14c | 135.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 133.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 128.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 126.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 125.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked No | 72c | 122$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 33c | 114.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked No | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.1wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…4557backed Yes | 12c | 100.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 11c | 98.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 67c | 89.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 74.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Yes | 32c | 69.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…e276backed Yes | 33c | 62.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 79c | 55.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 29c | 48.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…271bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Yes | 29c | 37.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed No | 70c | 36.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 67c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…9fdabacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 76c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-07-21?this page
- Will KÍ vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?Yes won
- Will KÍ win on 2026-07-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.