TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes43c1,924$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.881,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c1,859$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes59c1,150$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.729345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes30c928.25$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.454,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes34c885.55$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.3131454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No61c727.96$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.1927841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes25c673.82$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.241,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c592.23$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.312,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c457.75$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.798,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No51c408.15$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.154,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c401.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c385.31$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No56c370$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.121,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c350$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No65c315$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No58c250$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.731,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c246.02$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.916,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c220.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.262,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c219.41$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No68c207.29$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.352,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes47c199$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.169038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c190$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No48c181.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9171649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10215950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No8c169.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes56c163.46$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3944757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No45c158$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes41c155.58$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.791573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No56c152.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.791,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c130.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.182,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.985,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c127.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c124.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.979,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No45c120.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c119$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c115.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes66c112.16$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c112$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.894,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No66c106.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked No64c105$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3382…a6e4backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7195…177abacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af3…c472backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5813351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9913351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No50c98.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.229752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.171,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No47c93.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.462,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No51c93.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.332,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.86243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No51c81.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.082,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No76c81.07$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.182,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No35c79.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7120631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.422,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No62c76.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.121,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c75.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.241,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes53c73.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.795,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb930…435fbacked Yes28c71.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.091735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.155343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes36c68.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.873,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.923,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c67.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.142,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No62c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4979255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes39c65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.359746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes40c61.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2435344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes24c59.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8620027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes33c57.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No57c57.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No51c56.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e17…9289backed Yes39c54.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No60c52.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3749551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No46c52.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.999846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed Yes42c51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5811027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c50.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2921950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890c…9068backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2927248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2915545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No45c49.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No65c49.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8242762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes42c48.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.