Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84ded537810d5fe44ca62183f31d9ce3411013446cd0d0b3ad9cf1abdfb437c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 1,924$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,859$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 59c | 1,150$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.7 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 928.25$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 34c | 885.55$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.31 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 61c | 727.96$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.19 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 673.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.24 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 592.23$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 457.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 408.15$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 401.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 385.31$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 370$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 350$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 65c | 315$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 250$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 246.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 220.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 219.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 207.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 47c | 199$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 190$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 48c | 181.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 8c | 169.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 56c | 163.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 45c | 158$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 41c | 155.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 152.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 130.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 127.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 124.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 120.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 119$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 115.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 112.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 112$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 66c | 106.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…f570backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 50c | 98.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 93.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 93.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 81.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 81.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 35c | 79.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 76.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 75.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 73.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 68.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 67.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 39c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 40c | 61.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 57.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 56.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Yes | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 46c | 52.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 50.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…9068backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 45c | 49.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 49.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 42c | 48.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.