WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ffdb597a3d71a93b7a30c49d8f450a1160b5393f0c0cab196ad0407a05bfe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever | 79c | 3,925$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.43 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 17c | 2,453$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.52 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 1,555$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.6 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Seattle Storm | 44c | 1,285$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.45 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm | 35c | 1,059$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.66 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Seattle Storm | 46c | 334$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Indiana Fever | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Seattle Storm | 16c | 246.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 128.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 103.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Seattle Storm | 20c | 93.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Storm | 20c | 92.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Indiana Fever | 58c | 90.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Seattle Storm | 22c | 70.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Seattle Storm | 16c | 65.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Seattle Storm | 56c | 56.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Seattle Storm | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 40c | 49.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x383b…11b8backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Storm | 36c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 38.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Indiana Fever | 73c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Storm | 43c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Seattle Storm | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Indiana Fever | 44c | 35.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Storm | 45c | 32.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 31.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 31.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Seattle Storm | 40c | 29.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 27.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)this page
- Dominique Malonga: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Dominique Malonga: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle StormIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 181.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 183.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 184.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 185.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 186.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.