NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98811b6bd2d296dab36f25ba50e7d2a45f05c6ebf0553abe7f6416fbf4198b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,051 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 3,907$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc920…7914backed Over | 44c | 2,927$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.27 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 1,968$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 56c | 1,010$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.6 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.07 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…9be2backed Over | 47c | 836.8$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.8 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 50c | 655$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.64 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 522$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 444.44$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.89 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 438.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 56c | 437.38$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 399.79$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Under | 54c | 359.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 300.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 43c | 244.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 227.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 53c | 183.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 172.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…022dbacked Over | 46c | 150.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 43c | 145.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 95.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…5ac7backed Over | 55c | 89.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 57c | 86.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Over | 49c | 86.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 84.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 84.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 51c | 84.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 80.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 51c | 78.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 50c | 75.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…5f3bbacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 47c | 59.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 45c | 53.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 48c | 50.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ddc2backed Under | 54c | 46.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 43.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Over | 47c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 54c | 29.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Over | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a46…69c4backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 49c | 20.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.