NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd500fa55905677741242a91df68f0360c92280815bcd5b43e289d64b599632e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc167…51b0backed Over | 50c | 7,810$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,905 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 5,617$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,781.13 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.16 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 40c | 3,782$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.26 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 2,124$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,927$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 1,442$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.06 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 39c | 959.15$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 816.62$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.39 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 47c | 632.49$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.75 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 52c | 525.07$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2508…e25cbacked Over | 54c | 453.23$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 47c | 345.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 345.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Under | 41c | 299.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 56c | 282$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 308 | 40.9%126 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 224.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Over | 39c | 210$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2669backed Over | 63c | 187.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 38c | 171.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…cdf9backed Over | 60c | 152.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 145.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 37c | 140.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 40c | 102.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 102.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…4c2cbacked Under | 32c | 100.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 60c | 69.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 65.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Under | 37c | 62.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Over | 64c | 60.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 42c | 60.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…1457backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Under | 27c | 55.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…2cc3backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 129 | 60.5%78 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Under | 54c | 48.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over | 78c | 45.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 66c | 36.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Over | 38c | 32.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 53c | 31.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Over | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Over | 61c | 25.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 58c | 24.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Over | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…78f3backed Over | 80c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 76c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Over | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.