NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb6c5c94cbe0338bc1dfd612a60836b5ea04c4710c90d61a697a8e225b113897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 6,595$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.54 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Over | 76c | 6,488$4,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 24c | 6,313$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.23 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 4,004$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 1,901$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.21 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 53c | 1,270$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.13 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 40c | 1,260$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.05 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.99 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 28c | 1,029$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 775$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Over | 52c | 574.58$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 45c | 529.2$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 437.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.26 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 30c | 299.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 49c | 297$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 18c | 243.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed Under | 48c | 152.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked Under | 48c | 143.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Over | 54c | 143.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…f20bbacked Under | 48c | 139.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Under | 48c | 137.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 45c | 136.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 95.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 21c | 94.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Under | 16c | 91.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 87.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 18c | 81.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 40c | 77.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…5eadbacked Over | 67c | 74.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 62.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 49c | 57.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Under | 48c | 57.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 54.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 64c | 50.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 44.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3b…fbabbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 32.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 28.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…e2d0backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…a4c6backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. WarriorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.