TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,566 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x820e…9db7backed Timberwolves60c484.28$291 inWon+$193.711533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd1…e589backed Warriors39c470.02$183 inLost-$183.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a5…328ebacked Warriors40c247.09$100 inLost-$99.8410844.4%48 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba08…21f1backed Timberwolves61c242.72$148 inWon+$94.661450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e1…d473backed Timberwolves61c225.95$138 inWon+$88.121533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Warriors32c152$49 inLost-$49.051,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd92…50a5backed Warriors40c127.71$51 inLost-$51.081668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb81…2dadbacked Warriors40c124.14$50 inLost-$49.661428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef93…9f0dbacked Warriors40c116.99$47 inLost-$46.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Warriors40c115.44$46 inLost-$46.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Timberwolves65c115.38$75 inWon+$40.388657%49 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Timberwolves66c60.6$40 inWon+$20.641038%156 W · 254 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Warriors34c57.22$20 inLost-$19.788057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc59f…f632backed Timberwolves63c47.75$30 inWon+$17.533357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves58c46.31$27 inWon+$19.452,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Warriors34c44.6$15 inLost-$15.1629243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Timberwolves63c39.68$25 inWon+$14.6813744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8dd…a9a9backed Timberwolves65c32.66$21 inWon+$11.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726a…196bbacked Timberwolves66c30$20 inWon+$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Warriors35c28.69$10 inLost-$10.1613835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…ab24backed Timberwolves77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…8ddabacked Timberwolves74c17$13 inWon+$4.425180.4%41 W · 10 L+9.7wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+33%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Timberwolves62c16.73$10 inWon+$6.3153839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.