TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Istanbul 2: Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gijs Brouwerof Gijs Brouwer, Yanki Erel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbba2…24febacked Yanki Erel77c31,920$24,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,573.33540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Gijs Brouwer28c17,356$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,431.0213943.9%61 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8087backed Gijs Brouwer77c15,000$11,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.425930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0210…4debbacked Yanki Erel75c14,263$10,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,756.215360.4%32 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49e0…9af1backed Yanki Erel72c11,055$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00011064.5%71 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b8f…449bbacked Yanki Erel71c10,501$7,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,433.897159.2%42 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Gijs Brouwer24c7,750$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.161233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a38…1631backed Yanki Erel2c7,121$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Gijs Brouwer28c6,974$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.533,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Gijs Brouwer23c4,347$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.082,13736.8%787 W · 1,350 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Gijs Brouwer25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00026853.7%144 W · 124 L+18.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eed…1b88backed Yanki Erel17c3,666$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Gijs Brouwer23c3,628$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.098,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gijs Brouwer30c3,527$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.818,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yanki Erel70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1004,88238.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L-17.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked Yanki Erel2c2,916$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff02…da23backed Yanki Erel1c2,688$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d6…c4adbacked Gijs Brouwer23c2,649$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.975100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+119.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Gijs Brouwer22c2,500$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9504,07039.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L+92.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gijs Brouwer23c2,448$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.053,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a0…217abacked Yanki Erel21c2,386$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002347.8%11 W · 12 L+7.2wins+0.31per pick17cpaid+210.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6214…c4a0backed Yanki Erel15c2,333$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.9wins+0.54per pick23cpaid+200.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gijs Brouwer49c2,178$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.358,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Gijs Brouwer23c2,173$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.2178540.6%319 W · 466 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Gijs Brouwer25c2,000$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.433,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yanki Erel75c1,994$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.081,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Yanki Erel76c1,985$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.584,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Gijs Brouwer24c1,937$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.182060%12 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+56.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Gijs Brouwer23c1,871$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.81,14341.3%472 W · 671 L+23.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Gijs Brouwer25c1,519$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.0127236%98 W · 174 L-1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yanki Erel71c1,285$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.642,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Gijs Brouwer26c1,250$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.0541941.1%172 W · 247 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4087…3643backed Gijs Brouwer24c1,233$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick25cpaid+308.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Gijs Brouwer25c1,200$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90010954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Gijs Brouwer25c1,200$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90032337.5%121 W · 202 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yanki Erel73c1,140$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.734,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7528…6539backed Yanki Erel22c1,136$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick19cpaid+109.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ad2…ec06backed Yanki Erel22c1,136$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.29per pick18cpaid+114.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Gijs Brouwer25c957$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.6171139.1%278 W · 433 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Yanki Erel15c949.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14417136.3%62 W · 109 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6b…50e7backed Yanki Erel22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Yanki Erel31c900$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27913438.8%52 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Gijs Brouwer22c861$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.5856827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Gijs Brouwer28c847$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.2133551.9%174 W · 161 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yanki Erel75c816.15$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.151,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Yanki Erel24c700$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16915733.1%52 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Yanki Erel24c700$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16914936.9%55 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b0…cfa1backed Gijs Brouwer27c646.93$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.269037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yanki Erel76c642.6$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.7487237.2%324 W · 548 L-3.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Gijs Brouwer25c620$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.464753.9%349 W · 298 L+32.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Gijs Brouwer27c600$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4386,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Gijs Brouwer52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9293168.1%634 W · 297 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Gijs Brouwer27c573$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.291,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Gijs Brouwer25c566.64$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.9825042.4%106 W · 144 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Gijs Brouwer24c525.17$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.4329149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yanki Erel70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yanki Erel24c480$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.148738.4%187 W · 300 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Yanki Erel24c460$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.215437%57 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked Yanki Erel22c454.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Yanki Erel22c454.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018038.3%69 W · 111 L+13.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Gijs Brouwer27c450$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301,54049.2%758 W · 782 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Gijs Brouwer29c445.81$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8544042.3%186 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Yanki Erel25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988027.5%22 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Yanki Erel25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810632.1%34 W · 72 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Yanki Erel76c396$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.962,23852.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L+80.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Gijs Brouwer28c392.86$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8644950.8%228 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed Gijs Brouwer27c384.72$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+116.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Yanki Erel71c380.39$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26939260.5%237 W · 155 L-1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Gijs Brouwer29c375.38$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7263537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Yanki Erel71c364.12$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.121,06157.4%609 W · 452 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Gijs Brouwer28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1436521.6%79 W · 286 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e3…f2c9backed Gijs Brouwer25c350$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+72.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…7d64backed Yanki Erel76c350$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Yanki Erel8c347.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.656621.2%14 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…5e63backed Yanki Erel8c339.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.734615.2%7 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gijs Brouwer26c328.64$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.191,53442.4%651 W · 883 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Gijs Brouwer47c324$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.531,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Yanki Erel74c313.51$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.921,06652.4%559 W · 507 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Yanki Erel71c312$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5255753.7%299 W · 258 L+19.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yanki Erel57c303.12$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.041275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Gijs Brouwer26c301.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.532,21242.9%948 W · 1,264 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…7584backed Yanki Erel76c300$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0531…3770backed Gijs Brouwer25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+90.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Gijs Brouwer32c291.16$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4258757.8%339 W · 248 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3711…2775backed Gijs Brouwer24c289$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.641650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df9…0965backed Gijs Brouwer32c253$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed Yanki Erel22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5511540%46 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e2…5405backed Yanki Erel22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef04…f6e3backed Gijs Brouwer25c240$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805054%27 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Gijs Brouwer24c226.9$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.449030%27 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Yanki Erel70c214.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,17852.4%617 W · 561 L+27.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Gijs Brouwer24c206.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7970537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec6…9404backed Gijs Brouwer25c206.84$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Gijs Brouwer25c206.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.011163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+62.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Gijs Brouwer25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15026049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed Yanki Erel22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449640.6%39 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Yanki Erel22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4412746.5%59 W · 68 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bf9…ad6ebacked Yanki Erel22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447245.8%33 W · 39 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed Yanki Erel22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448840.9%36 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84b1…51b8backed Yanki Erel22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446527.7%18 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.