Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e6b3e327c6a6b0a7b7df10f4e80bddc486a1b35c779d9e63e0c3a456a60abf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 39c | 457.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 419.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 408.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 281.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 275.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 230.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 203$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 166.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 165.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 39c | 134.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 129.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 32c | 116.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…a2debacked No | 80c | 115.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 32c | 112.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 99.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 39c | 96.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 94.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 34c | 94.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…9601backed Yes | 14c | 86.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 84.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 77.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 74.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 41c | 73.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 36c | 72.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 70.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 63.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 62.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 72c | 60.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked No | 78c | 57.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 57.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 19c | 56.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 67c | 55.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…95bebacked Yes | 40c | 55.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 50.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 49.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 27c | 48.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 37c | 48.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 48.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 28c | 47.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 32c | 45.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 49c | 45.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 26c | 45.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 44.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 80c | 39.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 39.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 37.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 71c | 35.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 34.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 34c | 30.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 30.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 28.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 26.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 74c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…081abacked No | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.