Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3eb44c3f9ac724b64fa643d6231b3847e515354eb63e2daa528fe4367d0039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,616$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 48c | 1,345$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.35 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 53c | 1,241$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.09 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 1,100$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.54 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 43c | 923.05$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 678.69$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 546.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 527.52$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.81 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 415.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 52c | 415.72$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.37 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 36c | 367.94$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 51c | 360.32$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 344.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed Yes | 44c | 340.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 33c | 301.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 290.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 288.24$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 52c | 272.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 225.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 42c | 219.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 194.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 36c | 184.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 181.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 174.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 74c | 172.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 163.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 53c | 159.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 152.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 49c | 151.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 48c | 151.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 140.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 17c | 138.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 50c | 135.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 128.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 122$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 121.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 52c | 119.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 119.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 50c | 115.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 46c | 110.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 109.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 104.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 101.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…9f36backed Yes | 46c | 95.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 40c | 95.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 91.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 88.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…ef07backed Yes | 46c | 84.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 52c | 83.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 83.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 49c | 81.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…fc4fbacked Yes | 46c | 80.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 80.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 77.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 76.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 75.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 63c | 74.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 24c | 70.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 68.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 64.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 63.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 49c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 55.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 46c | 55.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 60c | 53.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 52.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 49.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 50c | 46.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 61c | 42.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 35c | 39.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 36c | 37.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 49c | 36.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…b3a8backed No | 51c | 34.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 33.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 31.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.