Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43cd72c76c5e5e1a4603e81a6a753aaabd2c386665e93f253a27b463c7113d94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 3,059$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.09 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 62c | 2,908$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.61 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 2,337$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.61 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,046$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 786.92$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 755.87$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 671.44$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 68c | 614.27$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.57 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 569.17$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 450$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 406.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 4c | 345.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 292.43$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 288.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 261.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 259.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 242.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 240$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 228.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 222$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 66c | 208$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 39c | 193.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 189.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 177.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 60c | 172.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 160.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 152.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 31c | 131.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 122.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 122.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 122$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 121.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 119.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 32c | 118.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 116.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…9dbdbacked Yes | 38c | 111.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…d269backed Yes | 38c | 106.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 104.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 100.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 94.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 37c | 92.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 85.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 82.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 76.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 75.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 73.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 34c | 68.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 67.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 66.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 29c | 56.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 55.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 51.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 27c | 49.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 62c | 49.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 44.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 41.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 69c | 37.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 74c | 36.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 36c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 32c | 35.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 34.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 72c | 33.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…1b1fbacked No | 67c | 27.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 71c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 68c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.