NFL · resolved market
Spread: CAR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5d25fb5dd7df86d3235f4d9a05e4a85f8ce5b4da72a6f2cd8dc9c07813cba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CARof CAR, JAX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked JAX | 51c | 195,000$99,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,899.97 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CAR | 49c | 181,192$88,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,702.1 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…1db5backed CAR | 52c | 117,164$60,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,273.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed JAX | 48c | 105,633$50,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,703.94 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked CAR | 49c | 25,593$12,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,973.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed JAX | 51c | 23,937$12,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,147.4 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed CAR | 49c | 6,700$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed JAX | 49c | 5,886$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.35 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked JAX | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.79 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed CAR | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed CAR | 48c | 4,202$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed JAX | 50c | 4,115$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.24 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…8667backed CAR | 50c | 1,522$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed JAX | 48c | 1,500$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CAR | 48c | 910.56$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked JAX | 41c | 532.12$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.68 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked JAX | 50c | 527.23$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed CAR | 47c | 419.42$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed JAX | 52c | 410$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed CAR | 48c | 402.62$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed CAR | 48c | 359.33$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked CAR | 51c | 285.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CAR | 51c | 186$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed JAX | 49c | 156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed CAR | 62c | 140.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…2dc5backed JAX | 49c | 136.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed CAR | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed JAX | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed CAR | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed JAX | 50c | 96.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed JAX | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed JAX | 51c | 87.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed JAX | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed JAX | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed CAR | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed CAR | 59c | 52.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed CAR | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed CAR | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked JAX | 30c | 38.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked JAX | 49c | 35.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed JAX | 49c | 33.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked CAR | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed CAR | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed CAR | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked CAR | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked CAR | 67c | 23.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked CAR | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed JAX | 50c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CAR (-1.5)this page
- CAR vs. JAX: O/U 36.5Over won
- CAR vs. JAX: O/U 37.5Over won
- CAR vs. JAX: O/U 38.5Over won
- CAR vs. JAX: O/U 39.5Over won
- Panthers vs. JaguarsPanthers won
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)CAR won
- Spread: JAX (-2.5)CAR won
- Spread: JAX (-3.5)CAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.