NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7a9f3a801179788a5bd53d8d4d270154b25a0fd583bd5d7300d6d5a2b62bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 350.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 282.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…bc8cbacked Over | 60c | 215.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 43c | 131$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Over | 36c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 48.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…2867backed Over | 46c | 34.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.