NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1b663343c96933e666c10867b5bae12ca644a6a3015dba3b3bc3569199f375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Lakers, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Lakers | 48c | 10,000$4,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,757.66 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 52c | 6,782$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…be4fbacked Lakers | 5c | 5,480$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Lakers | 41c | 4,479$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.99 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 59c | 2,598$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Rockets | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rockets | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Lakers | 42c | 1,064$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.88 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Rockets | 60c | 953$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Rockets | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rockets | 61c | 412$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Lakers | 42c | 354.17$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 38c | 312.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Lakers | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Rockets | 64c | 260.66$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Rockets | 70c | 222.45$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Lakers | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 57c | 196.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Lakers | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lakers | 36c | 138.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Rockets | 59c | 120.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Lakers | 41c | 119.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b66…304cbacked Lakers | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Rockets | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 136 | 38.2%52 W · 84 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Lakers | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Rockets | 58c | 75.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rockets | 60c | 74.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Rockets | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Lakers | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rockets | 59c | 52.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…ec0ebacked Lakers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Rockets | 51c | 40.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Lakers | 50c | 38.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lakers | 35c | 38.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…6f25backed Rockets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 59c | 28.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Lakers | 39c | 25.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…e2e5backed Lakers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.