NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953341d38ed79ed9b26b0840ecd993d601b72f2193c02066cc94f85ce263c7e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 74c | 815.38$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Lakers | 6c | 541.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Rockets | 54c | 531.93$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Rockets | 66c | 510.94$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.61 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Lakers | 33c | 464.02$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Lakers | 47c | 422.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Lakers | 16c | 417.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Lakers | 14c | 362.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…7807backed Lakers | 46c | 345.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Lakers | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Lakers | 15c | 239.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lakers | 47c | 213.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 53c | 153.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…376abacked Lakers | 11c | 152$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…6af8backed Lakers | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…5bd7backed Rockets | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Rockets | 57c | 133.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Lakers | 45c | 131.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Lakers | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Rockets | 58c | 100.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…a253backed Lakers | 29c | 88.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Lakers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Rockets | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Lakers | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rockets | 52c | 33.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Lakers | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…cfc7backed Rockets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Rockets | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. LakersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.