TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof FUT Esports, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c3f…75cfbacked FUT Esports57c73,799$41,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,956.0513651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Gentle Mates43c40,823$17,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,269.2125554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked FUT Esports70c22,065$15,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,382.7778162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Gentle Mates43c15,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,55028955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Gentle Mates44c15,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.955358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Gentle Mates24c11,110$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,499.1433942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports74c10,346$7,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,624.352155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed FUT Esports6c7,915$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8560022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Gentle Mates43c4,500$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5654647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Gentle Mates40c4,000$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.532245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates25c3,189$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.561,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Gentle Mates43c2,400$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36828548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed FUT Esports56c1,942$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.945658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked FUT Esports27c1,879$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.591338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked Gentle Mates43c1,835$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Gentle Mates44c1,487$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.7311255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked FUT Esports16c1,263$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.128950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Gentle Mates26c1,245$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.336732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FUT Esports14c1,058$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6528747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Gentle Mates58c1,054$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.571,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Gentle Mates59c1,034$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.691,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Gentle Mates44c998.12$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.9824846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Gentle Mates45c915.09$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.312750.4%64 W · 63 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Gentle Mates24c910.57$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.0732047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…eba9backed Gentle Mates44c910$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.67045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Gentle Mates46c866.38$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.857151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Gentle Mates43c825.91$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.77475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports7c795.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed FUT Esports48c721$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3456028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed FUT Esports38c688.84$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.319656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates42c681.86$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6756357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gentle Mates41c665.34$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.153355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed FUT Esports14c644.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.254342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Gentle Mates26c607.44$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.11752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed FUT Esports32c579.2$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Gentle Mates69c550.28$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.696040%24 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Gentle Mates36c541.86$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.6116033.8%54 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gentle Mates35c488.13$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9774642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gentle Mates61c481.59$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.251,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed FUT Esports37c418.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.937930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47d2…1945backed FUT Esports22c383.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.63729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…3e7ebacked FUT Esports28c358.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008246.3%38 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed FUT Esports30c333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FUT Esports68c331.1$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9613759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Gentle Mates43c315.7$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.952751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fa…26d9backed FUT Esports65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c5…2dcdbacked FUT Esports65c306.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Gentle Mates24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2287448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FUT Esports51c296.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15062856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked FUT Esports55c279.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd20…24dabacked FUT Esports22c276.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605523.6%13 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Gentle Mates37c258.63$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.31,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Gentle Mates39c258.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.121454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa7…5b9abacked FUT Esports75c255$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Gentle Mates25c250$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.523644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Gentle Mates65c238.78$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5921136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Gentle Mates44c230$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.818049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50fb…60cbbacked Gentle Mates37c221$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.234100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+110.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd755…d794backed FUT Esports57c219.3$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251625%4 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xffd8…1faabacked FUT Esports57c212.63$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed FUT Esports15c201.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked FUT Esports57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11436648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Gentle Mates45c184.97$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4645250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Gentle Mates45c184$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed FUT Esports56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked FUT Esports56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed FUT Esports47c172.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3643059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef36…d3cfbacked FUT Esports11c168.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed FUT Esports58c168.59$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Gentle Mates38c161$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.98345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FUT Esports76c157.89$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12033346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Gentle Mates44c156.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8218653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99e…8c2bbacked Gentle Mates35c143.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed FUT Esports56c133.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Gentle Mates44c130$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.825245.2%114 W · 138 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf5…e7c3backed Gentle Mates45c129.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.46357.1%36 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed FUT Esports58c124.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2719257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed FUT Esports56c120$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.23737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked FUT Esports17c117.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3714729.9%44 W · 103 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Gentle Mates44c111.4$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.760154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked FUT Esports14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Gentle Mates32c99.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.232261.5%198 W · 124 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed FUT Esports56c98.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.372128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x805b…ee0cbacked FUT Esports37c96.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…0416backed FUT Esports56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Gentle Mates43c87.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1523055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Gentle Mates43c87.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1413848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Gentle Mates51c85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.94168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+40.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5aa…e292backed Gentle Mates27c85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.251662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd652…6354backed Gentle Mates25c82.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.054456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FUT Esports55c79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8227145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c9…3831backed Gentle Mates45c77.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.58850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Gentle Mates57c76.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.210238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefab…258ebacked FUT Esports58c75.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.394740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked FUT Esports57c73.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9815842.4%67 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd9…be42backed Gentle Mates78c64.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Gentle Mates50c63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2399846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked FUT Esports17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025141.4%104 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0128…d18abacked FUT Esports57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d0…028abacked Gentle Mates41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.53663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.