Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabfbdfb2dbec0c41698377f6a0570e96a3a9b6407aea6f77e687d9105dec183c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 2,062$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.12 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 17c | 491.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 482.3$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 451$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 63c | 357.68$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 5c | 294.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 246$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 206.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 64c | 204.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 202.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 200.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 59c | 198.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 172$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 151.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 145.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 10c | 115.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 107.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 45c | 93.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 85.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 75.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 72.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 46c | 71.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 69.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 46c | 69.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 65c | 62.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 61.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 59.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 54.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 55c | 48.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 46.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 46.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…08edbacked Yes | 64c | 43.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 65c | 42.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 42.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 63c | 40.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 39.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…091abacked No | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 48c | 37.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 41c | 35.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 46c | 35.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 67c | 35.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 67c | 35.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 70c | 35.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 43c | 34.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 57c | 31.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 56c | 27.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 58c | 27.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 63c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.