NBA · resolved market
Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac162dd94b55a868f396830323c1a8368f6724712e548d8cfd7d2d6905c72bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,343 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 49c | 1,214$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.65 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 51c | 1,078$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.28 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 63c | 900$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.88 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 37c | 873.78$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Yes | 46c | 349.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…150bbacked Yes | 38c | 330.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 55c | 300$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 239.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.92 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…68e6backed Yes | 39c | 205.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed No | 62c | 195$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 52c | 141$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 50c | 132.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes | 41c | 129.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 41c | 126.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 50c | 122.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 50c | 106.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a33backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed No | 78c | 67.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed No | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 51c | 55.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked No | 62c | 52.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…188dbacked Yes | 52c | 48.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes | 47c | 46.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 51c | 32.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…22c4backed No | 50c | 30.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 51c | 19.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Suns won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.