NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdcb69979013b849fa29b548018c17d118c8733f4cd0eb2ca12f3d602d85efd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets | 54c | 5,626$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.91 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 46c | 4,361$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,722$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.11 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,268$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns | 44c | 1,168$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 45c | 980.55$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.39 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Suns | 44c | 750$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Suns | 51c | 589.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Suns | 46c | 533.63$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.47 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Suns | 48c | 395.56$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Suns | 52c | 218.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Nuggets | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Suns | 48c | 197.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Nuggets | 54c | 185.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Nuggets | 54c | 183.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 136.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 135.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Suns | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Suns | 51c | 98.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Suns | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Nuggets | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Suns | 44c | 67.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Suns | 45c | 56.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2926…1591backed Nuggets | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Suns | 47c | 43.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…0595backed Nuggets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked Suns | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Suns | 52c | 29.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Suns | 47c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Suns | 48c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)this page
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Suns won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.