Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad97f04e261a31a8a3fcfe4e8390ab7986b85e8bbcc2c9cb8984fcf33d721dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 12,680$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.76 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 5,832$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.17 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Over | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 80c | 2,300$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 2,070$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.96 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 20c | 1,842$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.34 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 80c | 1,375$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 11c | 1,045$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 901.48$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 79c | 373.41$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 80c | 313.36$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…68e3backed Under | 21c | 290.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…9e24backed Under | 32c | 223.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 19c | 210.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 74c | 195$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 76c | 177$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…a58abacked Over | 75c | 174.88$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 79c | 154.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…3f31backed Under | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Under | 11c | 142.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Over | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 20c | 137.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…c158backed Over | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Under | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 248 | 44.4%110 W · 138 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Under | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 80c | 64.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 19c | 61.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed Over | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Under | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 74c | 56.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 41.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7762backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…61c1backed Over | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…fd71backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…18fbbacked Over | 80c | 14.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb42…3ea4backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.