Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164aee15980c97d12b59f6cd951dd10c4ef41ec301031090639aa0145a5151c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 58,020$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,376.7 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 3,868$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,028.71 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 2c | 3,205$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Over | 18c | 2,401$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.98 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…9e24backed Under | 72c | 1,376$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 1,246$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.6 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Under | 2c | 975.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.33 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 788.84$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.86 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Over | 40c | 752.93$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 44c | 684.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.25 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 17c | 681.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.49 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 42c | 649.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 47c | 638.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.57 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 19c | 634.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.05 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Under | 72c | 478.53$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.87 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…5cb0backed Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 26c | 303.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 73c | 275.9$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 175.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…eed9backed Under | 57c | 175.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 165.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Under | 73c | 144.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 137.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…c870backed Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 26c | 118.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…3fcbbacked Over | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…724bbacked Under | 57c | 108.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 107.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed Under | 74c | 103.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Under | 64c | 81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 76.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 57.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…41f2backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 23c | 52.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 50.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x383b…93c2backed Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 65c | 44.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…433ebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…5e45backed Under | 70c | 44.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…2ae7backed Under | 74c | 40.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Under | 70c | 37.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 28c | 37.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87e2…482dbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Over | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…0865backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…f2cebacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Under | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 80c | 23.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…c9a6backed Over | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.