WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0c9dbcc7adb58f5196fbbb70f11870b1cb0516e50a7382424e25d302a4d3f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Aces, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Aces | 28c | 10,957$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,889.18 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mercury | 72c | 10,400$7,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,487.04 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aces | 33c | 5,060$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.14 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Aces | 70c | 4,375$3,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…4881backed Mercury | 66c | 4,281$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mercury | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Mercury | 46c | 3,063$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…3f28backed Aces | 33c | 2,774$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Aces | 29c | 2,400$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 56c | 2,356$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.9 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 69c | 2,115$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.97 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Mercury | 46c | 1,713$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Aces | 29c | 1,552$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Mercury | 44c | 1,510$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.29 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Mercury | 71c | 1,260$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Aces | 41c | 1,214$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Mercury | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Aces | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mercury | 46c | 1,077$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.95 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Aces | 22c | 1,027$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.71 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9850…4708backed Mercury | 48c | 842.32$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Aces | 32c | 650$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Mercury | 45c | 554.16$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.26 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 69c | 552.46$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.2 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aces | 31c | 450$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Aces | 23c | 442.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mercury | 66c | 272.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…e37cbacked Mercury | 35c | 235$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…87ebbacked Mercury | 33c | 212.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Aces | 36c | 210$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Mercury | 71c | 194.17$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mercury | 69c | 175$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Mercury | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Aces | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Mercury | 60c | 114.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Aces | 39c | 107.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Mercury | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aces | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Aces | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…1746backed Aces | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Aces | 36c | 69.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Aces | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mercury | 71c | 67.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Aces | 52c | 64.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Mercury | 73c | 62.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 70c | 60.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…35f5backed Aces | 34c | 58.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Aces | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Aces | 62c | 49.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Aces | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Mercury | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed Mercury | 72c | 39.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Aces | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Aces | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Aces | 34c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mercury | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Mercury | 70c | 28.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Mercury | 71c | 28.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Mercury | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mercury | 69c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.