TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Luca Nardi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bustaof Busta, Nardi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$367,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Busta38c23,338$8,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,381.698,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Nardi49c18,229$8,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,862.092944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nardi44c15,167$6,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,623.892,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Busta62c13,687$8,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,254.4655646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Nardi46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.9543051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nardi48c9,645$4,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.387,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Busta50c9,369$4,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.462,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nardi58c8,232$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,802.692,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Busta33c6,316$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,230.138042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Busta54c5,615$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.7230241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…4403backed Busta50c4,184$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.436829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Busta62c3,480$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.2134047.4%161 W · 179 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Nardi38c2,938$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.245133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Nardi65c2,715$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.452460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Busta41c2,392$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.6611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Nardi42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Nardi61c2,029$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24658753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Busta54c2,001$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.433467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Busta53c1,947$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.846,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdb…3114backed Nardi43c1,636$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.252445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Busta46c1,600$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.3837854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Nardi33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Nardi34c1,458$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241a…a9c8backed Busta54c1,357$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.097248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Nardi44c1,343$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.392,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Busta20c1,249$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.3215117.9%27 W · 124 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Nardi50c1,243$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.6699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Nardi51c1,181$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3831647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Nardi42c1,166$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49211530.4%35 W · 80 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Busta34c1,079$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.334,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Nardi41c1,020$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6418447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Busta59c1,019$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.0839431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Nardi51c1,001$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2413647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Busta50c941.77$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.1375748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Nardi48c923.62$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.344,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Busta48c919.99$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.714,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Busta58c865.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.181,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Nardi68c775$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52716665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Busta35c714.29$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.296344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Busta39c675.67$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.6747946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Busta59c673.56$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.141,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Nardi63c652.85$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.320758%120 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Nardi47c631$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.524060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nardi45c624.2$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.656,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Nardi50c611.56$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30546553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Nardi48c596$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8653644.8%240 W · 296 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed Busta54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.562065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Nardi50c517.35$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.693756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Busta50c514$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25763247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x388b…25ddbacked Busta45c513.15$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.474245.2%19 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Nardi50c500.32$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24811353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Busta80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003574.3%26 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Busta42c478.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.7998240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Busta40c457$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.271,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Busta55c456.52$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5250364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nardi42c435.4$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.974,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Nardi77c434.58$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7910345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31c8…f2d8backed Nardi38c423.83$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.997632.9%25 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Busta50c411.06$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.531,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nardi49c409$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Busta47c404.51$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.952,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Nardi63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Nardi50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Nardi49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19699056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Nardi33c386.57$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.888845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Busta13c383.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0530254.3%164 W · 138 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Busta48c371.12$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.481,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Busta50c370$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18515646.8%73 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Busta57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8817955.9%100 W · 79 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Busta58c342.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.281,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Busta49c333.27$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9724350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Busta58c333$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8617462.6%109 W · 65 L+34.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Nardi67c331.76$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22118663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Nardi46c323.93$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Nardi64c322.51$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4938652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Nardi32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Busta49c308.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.9220748.3%100 W · 107 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Busta50c306.08$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.82,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Busta49c297$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.471,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6867…e83dbacked Nardi35c289.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nardi44c274.19$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.994,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nardi48c260$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.771,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9684…16ecbacked Busta58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Busta39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.411,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nardi44c250.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.453,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…fb2dbacked Nardi47c245.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Busta31c243.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6354547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Busta34c239.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2324529.8%73 W · 172 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Busta63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.141955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Nardi46c235$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.138133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Nardi45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5dc…7cf2backed Busta75c222$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.56464.1%41 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae31…c586backed Nardi45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed Busta49c216$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.945750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aff…5f17backed Nardi47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Busta52c210$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.870465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Nardi48c209.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.661,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Busta54c206$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ab…f911backed Busta52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965162.7%32 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24be…8d08backed Busta50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.